A mooted US proxy conflict over existing Russian-occupied territories would be unnecessary and dangerous
Ukraine, with some western help, has won a great victory, and the original aim of Russia’s invasion – to capture Kyiv and replace the Ukrainian government – has been utterly defeated. The Russian army has now regrouped in the east for a much more limited objective: that of capturing the whole of the Russian-populated Donbas region, which Moscow has already recognised as independent.
If the Russian army can achieve this in the coming weeks then we cannot say for sure what Moscow’s next move would be. However, Russia has suffered huge casualties among its elite troops, and even taking the relatively small city of Mariupol has taken two months and required reducing the city to ruins. In view of this, a further Russian campaign to capture much bigger cities such as Odesa looks implausible, and it seems possible Russia could go on the defensive, and offer a ceasefire and peace talks.
Anatol Lieven is a senior fellow of the Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft and author of Ukraine and Russia: A Fraternal Rivalry
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